“What’s going on with #Brexit?” I hear you ask. Here’s my go at an explainer. Put the kettle on.

For decades the Conservative Party (or the Tories as they’re more widely called) have been squabbling about the European Union. The Tories who dreamed of Britain’s former superpower status didn’t like having to cooperate within the EU. The rest of the party saw that Britain was no longer a superpower and was far more influential inside the EU than on its own. But in the early 2010s some of those anti-EU Conservative voters were drawn to UKIP, with its anti-immigrant and anti-EU stance. Worried about UKIP growing and siphoning off Conservative votes, David Cameron called a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU, to be held in June 2016, thinking that’d put the question to bed once and for all.

And they all lived happily ever after, the end. 

They didn’t. 

The 2016 referendum was the third ever referendum held in Britain. When Enda Kenny offered to give Cameron a few tips on how to run a referendum, Cameron was like, “nah, you’re grand, I’ve got this”. He didn’t. Britain voted to leave the EU 51.9% to 48.1% – a super-close result. 

Cameron resigned because he had made a balls of things; there was no need for that referendum, there were plenty other ways to address the growth of UKIP.

There was a leadership contest and Teresa May became leader of the Conservatives, and Prime Minister. During the leadership contest she had said “Brexit means Brexit” and that there would be no attempts to stay within the European Union. She didn’t say “oh yeah, we’re going to see how it goes and do what we can and manage expectations” like a more savvy politician would have said. She was taken at her word and Leave supporters and Brexiteers geared up for the glorious exit. The problem with going whole hog is that you can’t really go back on it. And she refused to go back on it, even when it was very obvious that getting out of the EU wasn’t as simple as “Brexit means Brexit”. Particularly when the EU was all, ‘who dis?’ becuase there are twenty-seven other countries who also have shit to be getting on with.

May’s leadership was going okay initially and seeing as she was doing okay popularity-wise and Labour were divided internally, she called an election in June 2017. A good result would show the EU that she had strong support within the UK and would allow her to get stuff done in parliament. 

Turned out she was shite at elections and the Conservatives lost their majority. 

Enter the DUP. The Conservatives wanted Brexit done, they wanted to stay in power and keep Jeremy Corbyn out of No.10 (they hate Jeremy Corbyn because he’s a socialist and they reckon he’ll destroy the UK and its economy if he’s Prime Minister). They wanted all the above soooo badly that they invited the DUP into a confidence and supply agreement, i.e. the government agreed a financial package with the DUP in exchange for support on certain issues.

The DUP were delighted. Everyone else was, to say the least of it, ‘surprised’. Many considered it a kick in the teeth (Northern Ireland nationalists, LGBTQ+ community, women).   

Let’s pause here and take a look around and see what’s going on in the rest of the UK. 

Wales voted to Leave. 

Scotland voted Remain, big-time (62% Remain to 38% Leave). Scotland was and is still looking for another independence referendum, and if they get independence they want in on the EU and the euro. Also, Scotland is unlikely to be harboring any sentimental notions about the days of Empire and British might.

Northern Ireland voted Remain. Crash-out or negotiated, Brexit is a disaster for Northern Ireland. It could mean border checks, obstacles to selling produce to the EU or the UK, or indeed getting produce to the EU. And there’s the renewed threat of violence if border posts go back up.  Also, the EU is a major funding partner of initiatives and program that promote and sustain peace in Northern Ireland communities because rights deriving from the EU are an important dimension of the post-GFA set-up.

For anyone’s who not sure about the NI border; we’ve a soft border – crossing from the Republic of Ireland into Northern Ireland you don’t know you’ve crossed it until the signs are in miles and have no Irish.   

Really, though, violence?

Yes. Firstly, violence tends to erupt in disadvantaged communities and the economic damage caused by Brexit (factory lay-offs etc.) is going to hit disadvantaged communities first. Secondly, if goods and products need to be checked going over the border there needs to be people at the border or near it to check them. If one of those people is injured or any aggression shown them, the police come in. If a policeman or woman is attacked, then it’s really only a matter of time before soldiers are sent in to protect them. I don’t need to tell you where that most likely goes.

Though I hope and pray we never have to consider that.

Okay, so we don’t want that, right?

Nobody does. So the EU and Theresa May get together and come up with an agreement to get them through the ‘transition’ period. And one of those aspects is the backstop. 

What is the backstop? It’s a last resort. It’s only to be used or put in place if no better suggestion is put forward. After Brexit, the two parts of Ireland could be in different customs and regulatory regimes, which could mean products being checked at the border. That means that goods coming into Northern Ireland would need to be checked to see if they meet EU standards. That’d be a border so; a hard one. So, to prevent a hard border, it was agreed in December 2017 that goods from Northern Ireland would align to the customs and regulatory regimes of the EU (and the Republic). No need to check goods at Cavan or Monaghan, they’d be checked crossing the Irish Sea, at ports and airports. No hard border across Ireland.

And remember, the backstop is a last resort, only to be used in the event of nothing better being suggested. 

Grand, that’s sorted so! 

No, remember the government needs DUP support to get anything through. And the DUP hated anything that drew a line between mainland UK and Northern Ireland because remember, unionism exists to maintain the union of Northern Ireland with Great Britain. The DUP want nothing that would threaten that union, like a border down the Irish Sea. What’s more, sharing a regulatory regime with the south was a bit United-Ireland-y for the DUP, not helped by Sinn Fein looking for a border poll within minutes of the 2016 referendum results coming in.

So, you remember all the comings and goings and Theresa May over and back to Brussels in 2018?  Eventually, in November 2018 herself and the EU knocked together a Working Agreement. Now, instead of a Northern Ireland-only backstop (DUP hated that) the whole of the UK would stay in a customs union until a better solution came up. The entire UK, not just Northern Ireland. The checks and all that would be as they have been, pretty much, but it would mean that the UK would have to keep playing by EU rules with regards to regulations and standards. 

The Brexiteers didn’t like that. Not one bit. 

“What’s the point in leaving if we’ve to stick to the EU’s rules?” they cried. Except they didn’t really: with the helpful braying of several news media outlets, they called the EU all sorts of names and berated the big, bad awful EU for not offering the terms and conditions they wanted to get out of the trading bloc they had voted to leave.

It was like setting fire to the house and then giving out to fire brigade for getting water everywhere. 

And if the EU were bad, what about that shower, the Irish? Brexiteers portrayed Irish refusal to negotiate or give way on the backstop as intransigence, and there seemed to be a genuine surprise that Ireland wouldn’t just do what it was told.

So, in late 2018 and spring 2019, Theresa May tried to get her deal through the House of Commons once, twice, three times. No joy. She resigns. And you’d feel sorry for her until you remembered her that when she was Home Secretary her department treated many immigrants terribly and she wasn’t backward about coming forward with anti-immigrant rhetoric to appeal to voters. All vestiges of sympathy wash away. 

It’s August 2019 and up steps the bould Boris.

He’s leaving the EU on 31 Oct. and he doesn’t care what you think. He’s got a plan, see. No, he can’t tell you what the plan is. But he has a plan. Just trust him. Oh, it’s a good one but no, he won’t tell you anything about it because he’s the only one who can deliver it. Which is a pity, because the EU wouldn’t mind hearing about it. The Irish government wouldn’t mind getting in on it either. But no, nope, nope, nope, it’s super-secret plan and he can’t tell anyone. Even his colleagues. And he’s the only one who can sort this out.  

But his bumbling and blustering is seen through quickly, as are his vague soundbites when pressed for detailed proposals. And then he takes the piss out of it completely and announces he intends to prorogue (call off) parliament until 15 October. Members of his own party and the opposition cry ‘enough is enough’. 

Closing down parliament removes space and time for his proposals (they don’t exist) to be debated. Remember, MPs are the representatives, the voice of the public. He wanted that shut down. Like a big ol’ autocrat. 

So, what happened this week? Well! It all kicked off this week. Labour put forward a bill on Tuesday. If passed, it would mean the UK was not allowed to leave without a deal. I’m calling it the You’re Not Allowed Leave without a Deal bill. Labour hadn’t enough people to get it passed so it gathered everyone up and – here’s the big bit – twenty-one members of Johnson’s own government jumped ship and voted with Labour (and remember, they haaaatte Corbyn). Y’hear that Boris? You’re not allowed let the UK leave without a deal. It’s going through the House of Lords now and it should get signed by the Queen next week. 

What if Johnson gets a deal? Well, he won’t. But okay, let’s say he does; sound, the UK leaves EU on 31 October with that deal. The UK leaving with or without a deal is still a nightmare for Ireland, but certainly a deal is the less worse option.

What if he doesn’t? Well he’s not allowed to leave without a deal, so he’ll have to ask for an extension. 

But he says he won’t do that. 

Yeah. That’s a problem. 

In fact, he said he’d rather die in a ditch than ask the EU for an extension. 

Yeah. 

Well, he’ll just have to call an election so and go to the country.

Oh fuck, sorry I forgot to mention something. 

Oh Doireann, what is it? This has been going on for ages. 

Okay, keep up, listen carefully. We’re nearly done. Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 a Prime Minister can’t just pull the plug on government. He or she must get ⅔ majority in the House of Commons to agree to dissolve the government and go for an election. Johnson hasn’t got a ⅔ majority, so he’d need votes from the SNP or Labour or Lib Dems to get an election called. But they wouldn’t trust him as far as they’d throw him and they won’t give him that until the You’re Not Allowed Leave without a Deal bill is – to quote boyband Blue and/or Stevie Wonder – ‘signed, sealed and delivered’. If they don’t wait for that, he might pick a date for an election that’s so late he’s still PM throughout October which lets him keep trying to push through his super-duper-deal-that-does-not-in-fact-exist. The EU would continue to pick its nails becuase it has said a thousand times that that Withdrawl Agreement is not for budging, not even for superdouper deals that don’t in fact exist.

The pro-Johnson media is all “ohmyGod it’s a disgrace, Corbyn is holding the country to ransom“. Everyone else sees that Johnson is not to be trusted one inch and understands the need for that You’re Not Allowed Leave the EU without a Deal bill. 

But don’t forget; he has no deal. If he had, he’d have probably mentioned it to his brother. His brother quit the Conservatives today because he can’t stand by and let the UK fall off a cliff. He has no alternative deal.

So, going forward….

If/when there is an election, nothing may change. They could end up with the same deadlock again. Labour is quite divided between Leavers and Remainers. Loads of people hate Jeremy Corbyn or are frightened of socialism. Loads of people hate Johnson but just want to get the hell out of the EU. A second referendum could well yield the same result as the first one.  

From an Irish perspective, it is to be hoped that the parliamentary arithmetic changes enough to get the DUP out of any role in government. A government not relying on the DUP might revert back to the Northern Ireland-only backstop. UK voters have shown they don’t give a continental about Northern Ireland and would probably be okay with a Northern-Ireland-only backstop if it meant getting out of a UK-wide backstop. 

The election will be dirty.

As of today, that’s it. Johnson became PM and thought that the world would bow before him, merely accept that he had a deal and knew better, and not stand in the master’s way.  He thought he could march up to the EU and hammer on the table. He tried all of that and the EU, many members of his own party, the rest of the Parliament and the thousands of Brits out protesting over the weekend told him where to stick it. 

Now we’re waiting to find out when an election is to be held. It’ll probably be before Oct. 17-18 (EU summit) but it might not be. If you’ve any mates in the UK, it’d be no harm to text them and ask them are they registered to vote. And make sure they get out and vote whenever the election takes place. It might be the most important vote they ever cast.

In the mean time, I’ll be in a corner rocking back and forth, comfort-eating and swigging from a bottle of bourbon